Chapter 12: Analyzing the World Wars
#12.2 Key Approaches (WWI)

1. The Impact of the Centenary of WWI

The centenary of the First World War (2014) sparked a renewed interest in the conflict and its lasting consequences. This anniversary provided a platform for historians to reflect on existing scholarship and explore new perspectives. One significant influence was the growing emphasis on contingency over motive in understanding the causes of the war.

2. Contingency vs. Motive

- Motive: This approach focuses on the intentions of key players and their desire to achieve certain objectives. For example, historians might analyze Germany's ambition for power and expansionism as a leading motive for the war.
- Contingency: This approach emphasizes the role of chance events and the unforeseen consequences of decisions. It acknowledges that the outbreak of war was not a predetermined outcome but rather a product of a series of complex and unpredictable circumstances.

3. The Shift Towards Contingency

The centenary of WWI saw a shift in historical analysis. Historians began to recognize the significance of minor decisions, miscalculations, and chance events that played a crucial role in escalating the crisis.

Examples of Contingency:

- The Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
- The death of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne was not initially seen as a major catalyst for war. However, the assassination triggered a chain reaction of events, including Austria-Hungary's ultimatum to Serbia and the subsequent mobilization of the European powers.
- The Schlieffen Plan
- Germany's war plan aimed to quickly defeat France and then focus on Russia. However, the plan failed due to logistical challenges, miscommunication, and the resilience of the French army. This failure led to a protracted war on the Western Front, with devastating consequences.

4. The Importance of Contingency

Understanding the impact of contingency emphasizes that war was not an inevitable outcome. The actions and decisions of individuals, along with unforeseen events, played a crucial role in shaping the course of events. This approach helps us:

- Avoid Determinism: It prevents us from assuming that history was predetermined and that certain events were inevitable.
- Appreciate Complexity: It recognizes the intricate web of causes and effects that led to war.
- Learn from the Past: By acknowledging the role of chance, we can better understand how seemingly minor events can have significant consequences and avoid similar mistakes in the future.

5. Conclusion

The centenary of the First World War brought a renewed focus on contingency in understanding the conflict. By emphasizing the role of chance events and unforeseen consequences, historians have gained a deeper understanding of the complexities of the conflict and its lasting impact on the world. This approach encourages a more nuanced and critical analysis of history, allowing us to learn from past mistakes and explore the myriad possibilities that existed in the past.