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Question

Explain causes of an increase in the value of a country’s floating foreign exchange rate.

Category:

Exchange Rates

CIE May/June 2023
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Answer

Introduction:

A country's floating foreign exchange rate is determined by market forces of supply and demand, reflecting the currency's value relative to other currencies. Fluctuations in the exchange rate can have significant implications for a country's economy, affecting trade competitiveness, foreign investment, inflation, and overall economic stability. In this essay, we will analyze the causes behind an increase in the value of a country's floating foreign exchange rate, drawing upon economic concepts and theories to provide a comprehensive explanation.

Causes of an Increase in the Value of a Country's Floating Foreign Exchange Rate:

1. Increase in Demand for the Currency:
- A rise in exports or exports exceeding imports leading to a current account surplus can increase demand for the country's currency. This may occur due to higher incomes abroad, making the country's goods and services more attractive in international markets. Additionally, lower inflation or deflation in the country can result in lower export prices, enhancing competitiveness. Improved quality of exports can also boost demand for the currency.

2. Increase in Foreign Investment:
- A higher rate of interest in the country can attract foreign investors seeking higher returns, leading to increased foreign investment inflows. This phenomenon, known as hot money flows, can drive up demand for the country's currency as investors seek to capitalize on interest rate differentials.

3. Speculation:
- Speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can also contribute to an increase in the value of a country's currency. Speculators may anticipate that the currency will appreciate in value in the future, leading to higher demand and driving up its exchange rate.

4. Decrease in Supply of the Currency:
- Factors such as a decrease in imports or a fall in the current account deficit can reduce the supply of the country's currency in the foreign exchange market. This could be driven by falling incomes domestically, lower inflation or higher prices of imports, or a decline in the quality of imported goods.

5. Firms Reducing Investment in Other Countries:
- When domestic firms reduce their investments in other countries and repatriate capital, this can result in a decrease in the supply of the country's currency in the global market. Lower interest rates in other countries can discourage outward investments, leading to reduced outflows of capital.

6. Speculation Against Other Currencies:
- Speculation that other currencies will depreciate can also contribute to an increase in the value of a country's currency. Investors may shift their holdings to the relatively stronger currency, driving up its exchange rate.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, various economic factors and behaviors can influence the value of a country's floating foreign exchange rate. Understanding the interplay of supply and demand dynamics, as well as the role of interest rates, trade balances, and speculative activities, is essential for assessing the drivers behind currency valuation. By applying economic theories and concepts, policymakers and market participants can gain insights into the complexities of exchange rate movements and their implications for the broader economy.

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Currency value increase can be caused by factors like strong economic performance, high interest rates, stable political environment, and favorable trade balance.

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